The eight most populous countries, and what is changing
India passed China in 2023, Nigeria is climbing fast, and the gap between the biggest country and the smallest is about 1.8 million to one.
For most of modern history, the answer to which country had the most people was China. That changed in 2023, when India overtook it — the first handover at the top since records of this kind began. India now has roughly 1.441 billion people to China's 1.425 billion, and the gap is widening every year.
The two are so far ahead that third place looks small by comparison. The United States has about 341 million people, which is less than a quarter of either leader.
The full top eight
Population, as used in the game:
- India — 1,441,000,000
- China — 1,425,000,000
- United States — 341,000,000
- Indonesia — 281,000,000
- Pakistan — 245,000,000
- Nigeria — 227,000,000
- Brazil — 217,000,000
- Bangladesh — 173,000,000
The countries people misplace
Pakistan is the one almost everybody gets wrong. It sits fifth in the world, ahead of both Nigeria and Brazil, and most people place it well outside the top ten. Bangladesh is another: 173 million people in a country smaller than the American state of Illinois, which makes it one of the most densely populated nations on Earth.
Indonesia is fourth, spread across roughly 17,000 islands, and is the most populous Muslim-majority country in the world. Russia, by contrast, is the largest country on the planet by area and does not make this list at all — it has fewer people than Bangladesh, in a territory 120 times the size.
Where the growth is
The rankings will keep moving, and almost all of the movement is African. Nigeria is growing fast enough that UN projections place it third in the world by 2050, ahead of the United States. DR Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania are all climbing quickly too.
The other half of the story is decline. China's population has begun to shrink. South Korea's fertility rate has fallen below 0.8 children per woman, the lowest ever recorded for a country, and Japan, Italy and much of Eastern Europe are shrinking as well. Demographers expect close to 40 per cent of humanity to live in Africa by 2100.
The other end of the scale
Vatican City has about 800 residents, which makes the ratio between the largest country and the smallest roughly 1.8 million to one — the widest spread of any category in the game.
Above it sit Tuvalu at around 11,000, Nauru at 13,000 and Palau at 18,000. San Marino has about 33,000 people, fewer than a mid-sized football stadium holds. Iceland, which feels substantial on a map and produces a national football team that has beaten England, has around 380,000.
How to guess well
Anchor on a handful of numbers and work outwards. India and China are both around 1.4 billion. The United States is around 340 million. Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil and Bangladesh are the 170-to-280 million band. Russia, Mexico, Japan, Ethiopia, the Philippines and Egypt are all roughly 100 to 145 million.
Then remember that area is a weak guide. Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Libya are enormous and thinly populated. Bangladesh, the Netherlands, South Korea and Rwanda are small and crowded. When a big empty country meets a small crowded one, the small one usually wins.